Where will Josh Johnson be after the the July non waiver trade deadline?
Right now on July 10th, the day after Johnson had a pretty respectable start against the Cleveland Indians, I am no clearer on what the Blue Jays will do than I was before the game.
Leading up to tonight's match up we (The Toronto Blue Jays Faithful) have been provided with probably one of the most disappointing pitching performances YTD of any big name acquisition that the Jays have ever brought in. From time spent on the DL, to flashes of brilliance against NL teams, to absolute terrible outings, Johnson has been an enigma all season long.
Now only a few weeks away from the trade deadline Alex Anthopolos is faced with the task of determining if one of his prize off season acquisition is going to be traded or kept on a team with at best an outside chance of making a playoff run.
So what if the Toronto Blue Jays trade Johnson? What would they get? Would this mean that the Blue Jays are giving up on the season? Are they better off keeping him and trying to re-sign him? Should they qualify him with either the hope that he takes the qualifying offer in order to re-build his value or should the qualify him and hope another team signs him and they get that teams 1st round pick?
There are so many questions and so many different possible outcomes that it's almost impossible to figure out what could actually be the outcome of any of the scenario's that it's almost too much fun not to think of what could happen.
From my POV, if the Blue Jays do Trade him I don't think the Jays are giving up on the season. Sure it may look that way to some fans, but even after tonight Johnson still has a record of 1-4 with an ERA above 4.50 and WHIP of around 1.50. Nothing that you really couldn't get out of any other would be starter. Could he turn it around and pitch lights on and be the pitcher we all thought he could be and help push the Jays towards one of the 2 Wild Card spots? Yeah, but his current track record leads me to believe that he doesn't look like he would be in line for such a change.
What would the Jays get for Johnson if they did trade him? I don't know, but at the start of the year, i'm pretty sure all things being equal that you could have at least got something that would help replenish the farm system with a few serviceable bodies that you got rid of to get Johnson. Now i'm not sure you're going to see anything other than some high A prospects and i'm almost positive that it will be package mush less desirable than say a deal that the Cubs would get for a Matt Garza.
So do you take a stab at giving him a qualifying offer with the hopes that he accepts a one year day to help write the ship in 2014 setting himself up for another Free Agent year cash in? If they do what does that mean to what their plans are for Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison? It doesn't hurt to have depth, as we have definitively learned the hard way this year! given that i''m still not so sure the Jays would be willing to take a hanger on a guy who has showed that he's had issues competing in the AL East. So do you qualify him just for the hope that he doesn't accept and he goes to sign with another just so the Jays can get a 1st or supplementary round pick in next year's draft? It's pretty apparent that the Jays need to build their farm system back and having a high pick could defiantly help them do so, but could they simply get some better prospects in simply trading him to a team that thinks they got a shot at the 2013 postseason with a guy like Johnson?
Lots of things for AA and his staff to think about that's for sure.
Now given all that here's what I think can happen in a bigger picture.....(All kinda surrounding the trading of Josh Johnson) 1st is the trade of Josh Johnson, we end up with a few prospects, we trade Davis (Who can be replaced by an Gose/Bonifacio in 14) for a prospect, trade Darren Oliver (again) for a prospect, and then let the rest of the year play out.
We definitely won't "Restock" the cupboards of the farm system like it was in the past, but these moves would allow the team to get some value back and still keep the team relatively in a good spot to work on the team in the off-season and make a run in 2014. What do I know really? I'm just a guy sitting at his kitchen table trying to make sense of it all. I don't even get paid for this!
Well it looks like that someone in the Jays organization has told some insiders that they don't plan on trading Josh Johnson. Well that tells me that they are expecting to tender a qualifying offer to him at the end of the year with the plan on getting a pick or they just aren't getting offers for anything they see as as valuable as a 1st round talent in return. Looks like the Jays could end up with 3 1st round picks in the 2014 draft.....