Thursday 28 March 2013

Blue Jays Extend JA Happ - Now What?

So this evening  Jays nation I think was taken by a bit by surprise with the announcement that JA Happ was signed to a 2 year extension + a team option for 2015. This comes approximately 6 days before the season opens and the day after we learned that Happ would now be Jays 5th starter when the season breaks.



So most of the evening I've been racking my brain to try to make some sense of it.....So i'm going to try to put some things down to help me understand it.

What do we know:

- Brandon Morrow is signed though 2014 + a team option for 2015
- RA Dickey is signed through 2015 + a team option for 2016
- Mark Buehrle is signed through 2015
- Ricky Romero is signed through 2015 + a team option for 2016
- JA Happ is now signed through 2014 + a team option for 2015
- Josh Johnson is signed through 2013
- Kyle Drabek is controllable until 2017
- Drew Hutchison is controllable until 2018
- Dustin McGowan  even though he's a band aid and now more of a bullpen arm, is signed through 2014 + a team option for 2015
- Aaron Sanchez is currently one of the most highly touted prospects in the MLB with a lot of potential.

- At the very least there is some certainty within the arms that we have minus Josh Johnson.

- Both Drabek and Hutchison are recovering from Tommy John surgery and should/could be available to the team near the later part of the year, but both should end up playing most of their time in Buffalo.

- Adam Wainwright has signed a 5 year extension with the Cardinals worth approximately 97.5 Million.

- Ricky Romero's status as a starter with the Blue Jays going forward has taken a big step back with his optioning down to single a Dunedin

I'm sure there are some other factors that may have some effect on the Jays pitching staff going forward...Robert Osuna, Sean Nolin, Daniel Norris, Free Agent signings etc....but for the sake of right now the above is what i'm focusing on.

So what does the signing mean?

Does it mean that AA is just looking to sure up his 2014 starting rotation now?
Does the $$$ that Adam Wainwright just got give us a good idea of what Josh Johnson could sign for if he has a good year?
Does it mean that the Jays are willing to let Josh Johnson walk at the end of 2013 and collect a draft pick for him if they provide him with a qualifying offer?
Does it mean that we could see 3 LH pitchers in the Jays rotation for 2014?
Is it AA giving Happ some financial security even if he has to be the 6th starter if Romero finds his 2011 form?
Does it mean that the Jays don't either Drabek or Hutchison won't be in the Jays rotation plans going forward?

I have no clue what AA is thinking exactly, but here is what I have deduced.

Josh Johnson more than likely will not be a Blue Jay in 2014.  I don't think AA thinks Johnson will be in his price range and is looking for ways to create some insurance for his team if this is the case.  ( I think AA also sees this as an opportunity to get another 1st rounder and build up his farm system again)

Given that I think AA may see his 2014 starting rotation will look like this at this time. (No particular order)

RA Dickey
Brandon Morrow
Mark Buehrle
JA Happ
Rickey Romero

Although both Drabek and Hutchison were both highly touted prospects, I don't think the Jays see either of them as true options for the rotation other than them fail safe's if someone were to go down to injury and Sanchez or any of their other prospects are just still too far away from being MLB ready by next year.

This move is in true AA fashion and is him eliminating some questions regarding what may happen if Josh Johnson is not a Blue Jay in 2014.

But what do I know.....

**AA and JA Happ will have a presser tomorrow to announce the signing officially, i'm sure there will be some questions asked & answered to help bring some light to the extension.

Go Jays Go!

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